With the news dominated by economic gloom and employment worries, it is always nice to hear some good stories emerging from the relative chaos that is Britain in 2012. Today, those still struggling to find work may take heart in the fact that British businesses of all sizes, still intend to hire more workers, with the jobs market looking stronger than it has for the past four years.
Manpower, a leading recruitment firm, found in a recent survey that, despite the country still being stuck in the longest double dip recession for more than fifty years, employers plan to defy the economic forecasts by taking on staff in growing numbers during the next few months.
UK managing director for Manpower, James Hick, says; “We have been saying that the jobs market is heading in the right direction since the beginning of the year. Understandably this has been met with scepticism because of the disappointing GDP figures.
“However, in recent months the official employment statistics have started to catch up with our predictions. Over 300,000 jobs have been created this year – that’s a good year’s worth already.
“The good news is that the UK jobs market is set for a further boost for the remainder of 2012.”
Of course, this by no means guarantees that the unemployment crisis is nearing its end. Due to issues with pension’s savings, more and more people of retirement age are choosing to remain in full or part time employment, meaning that commercial properties that would previously have been forced to take on and train young people now no longer have that obligation. This has ensured that young people aged 16-25 are one of the groups in society having the hardest time finding work.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) have released figures this week, which are expected to show that unemployment has continued to fall, with a further rise in employment over the Summer months. This could partially be accounted for by hires made to cope with the influx of visitors to the UK for the Olympic and Paralympic Games, of course, meaning that many of the roles advertised during that time could well have simply been temporary positions.
However, whilst unemployment rose to 8 per cent, or 2.56 million, since the Coalition Government took power in 2010, current figures indicate that there are now 29.48 million people in employment, meaning that the number of people in work has actually risen by 501,000 in the same space of time. Essentially, this means that there are now only 96,000 fewer people working than recorded at the pre-recession peak time for employment in early 2008 – indicating that other factors than the recession may be at play in the unemployment issue. Immigration and population factors may also be having a significant factor, for example.
Yet the fact that the jobs market has proven to be so successful at a time of economic hardship still baffles top economists, who have described the trend as an “economic puzzle.”
Chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, George Buckley, says; “Since the onset of the recession, the labour market has proved more resilient than might have been expected in light of economic weakness.
“The result is that we are faced with a productivity puzzle – weaker output per head and per hour worked than in the aftermath of previous UK recessions.”
According to Mr Buckley, then, the fact that the jobs market has remained strong may not be a good thing for the UK’s economic recovery. With a lower output per head, it seems that businesses may be wasting money by taking on more employees – paying more workers, when they have less work to do as a result of poor trading due to businesses being more cautious. This may then trap the UK in an endless economic cycle of recession.
Yet by firing workers, the national average disposable income will drop, meaning that people are more likely to save instead of spend – thus causing a stagnation in the economy anyway.
It seems that the UK’s path to economic recovery is a rather clouded one, with no certainty as to the best way to proceed. But surely the fact that employment continues to increase is a light at the end of a four year tunnel – meaning that, hopefully, Britain is moving in the right direction.
Do you agree with Mr Buckley, in that higher employment during a recession means poorer levels of productivity? Or do you believe that the only way the UK can hope to recover is by keeping the jobs market buoyant, no matter what the cost to commercial property businesses is?
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