A report prepared for the Mayor says that unemployment will increase by up to 14,000 around Heathrow if the airport closes. If the airport was closed down in 2029 and the site was bulldozed for a major residential development, the number of jobless in the area would grow to 38,000 by the year 2050, a figure 58 per cent higher than it is today.
The study, prepared by Oxford Economics and Ramboli, said that Heathrow’s closure would cost 71,000 jobs immediately. By 2050, that figure would fall to 33,500 as employment is created in new town centres and other commercial sites.
The area, which includes Ealing, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Spelthorne, and Slough, would still suffer a blow to the economy worth £7 billion annually. The working age population would increase by 45 per cent to more than 1 million, while local employment would rise by only 13 per cent to 713,000. The area would become a major commuter district, with 103,000 more people traveling from it than coming in every day by the year 2050. There is a net influx of 10,000 more coming into the area now.
Rob Gray, of the campaign group Back Heathrow, shared concerns that tens of thousands of people would be left out of work if the airport were to close. He said that Londoners need the airport to “grow quietly not fall silent.”
Daniel Moylan, the Mayor’s aviation chief, said the study had not taken into account the “bigger picture for London of the impact of a new hub airport and the closure of Heathrow.” He argued that the move would, in fact, create tens of thousands of new jobs for London and that even in west London the effect would be a “positive one” over time.
The study which was commissioned by Transport for London, also looked at a second scenario where Heathrow was closed but not developed for housing. Under this plan, there would be 77,000 fewer jobs than if development took place.
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