The results of the latest CPE 100 Quarterly Sentiment Survey point to 2016 as being a peak year for the US market.
Close to half of the group of industry leaders surveyed (46%) said that asset values and transaction volume across property types have not hit their peak yet and are forecasting that it is still two years away.
Only 15% thought 2017 would be the best year for commercial real estate investment in the current cycle.
When asked when the peak of the current investment market would occur, the executives responded as follows:
Has peaked 2014 8%
2015 23%
2016 46%
2017 15%
After 2017 8%
The current cycle has been a positive one, with most stakeholders proceeding wisely, although some have been imprudent with their investment or lending decisions. Savvy participants in the market know that even the post upbeat period doesn’t go on forever and are preparing for a correction at a later date by refining their portfolios to ensure they have enough cash available to take advantage of the next downturn when it occurs.
Most of the executives are upbeat about the outlook for their own businesses. The majority (71 per cent) said they expect their firms will be performing “somewhat better” in three months, the second-highest number since the Sentiment Survey started tracking results in the early part of 2012. It ranks only behind the 75 per cent of executives who gave a similar answer during the second quarter of this year.
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